Welcome to Competitive Innovations, our weekly feature for a number of game lines across the tabletop wargame space. Each week (or each month, for some games) our army list and tactics experts canvass the top tournaments for their game of specialty, looking at the week’s top match-ups and how they played out on the tabletop to let you know what’s hot, what’s not, and what might be coming next as the competitive meta evolves year-round.
Adepticon in sight and everyone’s focus on the Shatterpoint World Tournament! With few competitive events in February, we will forgo discussing new innovations from last month. Instead, we will focus on preparing for World’s, but with a fresh spin – this time, we will compete for the title of Goonhammer Jedi Master! The Goonhammer Shatterpoint pundits must become one with the force to predict the outcomes of Adepticon’s Shatterpoint World Championship. By correctly predicting the meta, a panelist wins points, and whoever gets the most points wins the title of Grand Master! The bolder the prediction, the more possible points a participant can procure! The scoring system for each category will be explained below, but first, let’s meet the panelists!
The Jedi Master Hopefuls
Samuel Sweeten: Green lightsaber enthusiast, avoids playing lists with black armor. Also the guy coming up with the scoring system, so definitely manipulating it in my favor! 😉 Favorite Star Wars Species: Mon Calamari
Cody Hawkins: A wildcard, tree hugging, meta defying chrome dome with a passion for miniatures and Star Wars. I’m low on sage wisdom these days but I’m chock full of personality and quirky analysis!
Matt Cerino: A seasoned tryhard gamer who loves a good challenge but is probably too confident for his own good. Just never tell me the odds!
Kyle Russell: Republic apologist and enjoyer of good business with a passion for force economy. Prepared to take a gamble or two…
Tom Reuhl: Lieutenant of Goonhammer Shatterpoint, a Master of Multitasking, and a filthy casual. However, I have the power of persuasion … I taught my wife how to Shatterpoint yesterday!
Scoring
The questions all revolved around primaries or missions. Questions about missions are worth 1 point each; get it right, get the point! Questions about primaries, however, are scored differently. I’ve separated primaries into groups of 5 based on popularity and win rate data. The stronger or more popular the primary, the fewer points a prediction including them is worth. Questions are categorized as “Regular Scoring” or “Reverse Scoring”, where scoring is reversed, those worth the most points are then worth the least! Additionally, guessing an exact primary is hard, so while full points are given for a correct guess, half points will be awarded for guessing a primary that ends up in the top 5 of a category but not the top spot. Let’s see the groups:
1 Point:
- Commander Iden Versio; Princess Leia, Charming to the Last; Kanan Jarrus; Moff Gideon; The Armorer
2 Points
- The Mandalorian; Clone Sergeant Hunter; Grand Admiral Thrawn; Darth Vader, The Emperor’s Servant; Darth Vader, Jedi Hunter
3 Points
- General Han Solo; Ki-Adi-Mundi; General Obi-Wan Kenobi; Hera Syndulla; Lord Maul
4 Points
- Lando Calrissian; Count Dooku; Jedi Knight Luke Skywalker; Mother Talzin; Hondo, Honest Businessman
5 points
- Leia Organa, Freedom Fighter; Luminara Unduli; Jedi Master Plo Koon; Cad Bane; General Grievous
6 points
- The Grand Inquisitor; Logray; Mace Windu; CT-9904; Ahsoka Tano, Jedi No More
7 Points
- Queen Amidala; General Anakin Skywalker; Asajj Ventress; General Veers; Chief Chirpa
The Predictions
Now that the parameters are set, let’s see out analysts predictions!
Most Taken Primary in Lists (Regular Scoring)
Samuel: I am starting with an ice-cold take. Empire is incredibly strong right now, and Iden is the poster child of the empire. I expect every Empire list with aspirations of winning the event to take her, whether that’s full empire lists or 2-and-2s with an Empire mode. At a world championship, I expect people gravitate towards the strongest units, and that’s Iden’s Inferno Squad.
Commander Iden Versio (1 possible point)
Cody: While I fully expect Empire to have a powerful showing, the road leading to top 8 consists of players trying to find their own way to beat Iden. My pick is what I feel is a safe option and can play both with the Empire and against it.
The Mandalorian (2 possible points)
Matt: He is going to bring them in warm AND bring them in cold. The Mandalorian is the Swiss army knife and one of my personal favorites. I think his versatility will make him the most brought model at Adepticon.
The Mandalorian (2 possible points)
Kyle: This isn’t the place to swing for the fences, we have a few known quantities. I’d rather not duplicate an answer here and I expect many will be preparing for Empire.
Princess Leia, Charming to the Last (1 possible point)
Tom: Based on the meta I have been seeing reported on and the power of the Empire.
Commander Iden Versio (1 possible point)
Most Played Primary (Regular Scoring)
Samuel: The force is telling me to swing big here, but I will ignore the force for this selection and instead follow The Way, and make a safer, more beskar-covered pick. If people bring a lot of Iden, people will select anti-Iden a lot in list selection, and a defensive unit with a revenge trigger is about an anti-Iden as you can get.
The Mandalorian (2 possible points)
Cody: This pick is always going to be difficult because it’s very matchup dependent for most players. Usually, the model that wins more gets played more.
Commander Iden Versio (1 possible point)
Matt: Sadly going to have to take the cheat code on this one. Iden will be the most played. I think there will be a lot of people who want to play their Iden list as much as possible and will just get the other out of the way.
Commander Iden Versio (1 possible point)
Kyle: Empire sure will be a popular pick, and I expect to see a decent amount go full Empire premiere. None of those players are leaving Moff at home.
Moff Gideon (1 possible point)
Tom: I will divert my predictions and get some outliers. If Samuel is right with the Mandalorian, this could be the second primary.
The Armorer (1 possible point)
Least Taken Primary in Lists (Reverse Scoring)
Samuel: The answer to me is clear: Queen Amidala. I love her character and her model, but she does not synergies with any of the other top Galactic Republic primaries, Hunter wants clones, Mundi wants Jedi, and Kenobi wants hunker tokens. This leaves her with no real place in list building besides those who love her character. I will definitely be cheering for anyone who brings her though!
Queen Padme Amidala (1 possible point)
Cody: There are several options to this and I expect at least a couple unused primaries, even in an event this large. Mace and Anakin could find new homes with Ki-Adi-Mundi while all it takes is one full Ewok player to get Chirpa in there. I’m going to take a risk and say…
The Grand Inquisitor (2 possible points)
Matt: Not the best strategy on my part, but I have to take Queen Amidala. I do think we will see an overall resurgence from the Republic, but I think the Queen of Naboo will not be included in that spark.
Queen Padme Amidala (1 possible point)
Kyle: I wouldn’t be surprised if we see everything taken at least once at an event this size. I’ll swing for some points here on a Primary I believe underrated. but his lack of faction synergy or a real identity can make him tough to build a list around…
Jedi Master Luke Skywalker (4 possible points)
Tom: I have yet to play against this primary, with his change in gameplay due to the order cards I believe we will need a few more units out that fully support his play style. Plus his win ratio is terrible on Longshanks.
General Veers (1 possible point)
Least Played, But Still Played, Primary (Reverse Scoring)
Samuel: Ok, this time I will swing for a pile of points. Hondo is a really tricky character to build an anchor list around, and while is a solid option alongside Hunter he is not the definitive best option there. That particular Hondo squad is inflexible as well, it plays with Hunter or nothing. A few people will bring Hondo, but he won’t be conducting much business on the tabletop!
Hondo, Honest Businessman (4 possible points)
Cody: I’m looking for someone who is brought to the event as a niche pick but isn’t really played. This is the off pick of someone’s list that they would consider an answer to meta problems. It helps to pick someone who doesn’t have a ton of options either forcing them to be taken in very specific situations.
CT-9904 (2 possible points)
Matt: Asajj Ventress, our original sith assassin will find her way in to a list but I believe she is going to be on the side that is just played to get out of the way. I would have picked Cad Bane prior to the Shaak Ti which I think will bring some new options to the creative mercenary.
Asajj Ventress (1 possible point)
Kyle: Taking another swing on points! Looking for the middle ground on someone that’s good enough to be taken, but may be there for a specific mission / match up that is not all that common. A revenge trigger on a slow character limits mission choice, with possible pairings in a Separatist list, or that awkward last 4th squad in an all Mando premiere list…
Mother Talzin (4 possible points)
Tom: With the possibility of a ‘new’ primary for Ahsoka coming out in time for Adepticon, we don’t know if the newest will be legal. I will take the bet that she will and the least played Primary:
Ahsoka Tano, Jedi No More (2 possible points)
Highest Win Rate Primary (Regular Scoring)
Samuel Sweeten: I’m going out on a limb and saying CT-9904. I think fans of the Bad Batch generally prefer secondary Crosshair. CT-9904’s play rate will drop less due that, plus he suffers from a very limited unit pool in his narrow timeline. These factors tend to result in skewed win rates one way or the other. I think those who bring evil Crosshair will come with specific plans for him, and I expect to see him used as a highly effective scalpel, with an incredible win rate and low number of plays.
CT-9904 (6 possible points)
Cody: For this pick, we have to go a little more niche. The more the model is taken, the more games they play, and the more likely they hit an average. I’m searching for a model that might be overlooked but has a solid presence and overall win rate. I’m feeling the flow of the force on this one!
Jedi Master Luminara Unduli (5 possible points)
Matt: This is a tough one. My gut tells me General Veers because I think the list that he shines in is going to only be brought by those very practiced with it. But I still think some full Empire lists may bring him raising his overall numbers. So I am going to go with Ahsoka Tano, Jedi No More for a similar reason. The people who are going to bring her are going to be seasoned veterans and will catch people off guard.
Ahsoka Tano, Jedi No More (6 possible points)
Kyle: Time for the biggest of swings! A primary with a very high loss rate? Check. Scores me 7 points if I get this one? Check. Has a surprise list that can be overpowering in ideal circumstances? Check.
General Veers (7 possible points)
Tom: I am putting my predictions in a bit late, so I am getting to see a few guesses. I too will swing for the fence and say that someone has been playing Ewoks hardcore to practice and win this tournament.
Logray (6 possible points)
Lowest Win Rate Primary? (Reverse Scoring)
Samuel: Cad Bane is my candidate here. He is tricky to pilot and easy to punish, a bad combination for a competitive event the level of a World Championship. I expect our blue bounty hunter to not collect a lot of bounties at the event, but hopefully he scores me a nice bounty of points.
Cad Bane (3 possible points)
Cody: These picks are fun because I have to consider what primary will have a hard time but also not be taken much. My gut reaction is to say Logray who has been gaining some popularity but… what if I play him? I’m definitely going to skew those numbers right? Haha how about we just go with:
Jedi Master Plo Koon (3 possible points)
Matt: Playing follow the leader here. I am going to bring Cad Bane and for the same reasons as Sam. He is a fan favorite and with Shaak Ti I believe he has even more options. Sadly with the era issues and having a few too many counter plays I think he is going to see the table, but struggle to find wins.
Cad Bane (3 possible points)
Kyle: I’m going to double down on another bet, I expect a few lists to have Mother Talzin as their ‘filler’ squad – the one to take once in an early swiss round. At an event like this, those are a riskier bet.
Mother Talzin (4 possible points)
Tom: We are playing for points right?! What if there is a universe where everyone comes up with a list to destroy the Empire? REBELS FTW!
Commander Iden Versio (7 possible points)
Most Brought Mission?
Samuel: I predict Never Tell Me the Odds. This mission is great for Iden, who I expect to be widely brought, and saw a surge of popularity at LVO. I expect that trend to continue.
Cody: There aren’t a ton of options for this so I’ll just go with Never Tell Me the Odds here.
Matt: Han Solo said it best, “Never Tell Me the Odds.”
Kyle: I like points if other people happen to be wrong… Sabotage Showdown.
Tom: Pure popularity: Never tell me the odds.
Least Brought Mission?
Samuel: Shifting Priorities is my guess here. This is my favorite mission to play, and Separatists and Veers lists are still big fans, but I do not expect either to be particularly popular. The mission is less neutral than Sabotage, and though Inferno Squad is strong on Shifting I don’t expect the majority of Iden pilots to pivot away from the Odds trend we have seen.
Cody: If I took Never Tell for the last one, then I really am just flipping a coin between the other two. I do expect that Shifting is more popular and easier for newer players that might attend the tournament to bring. My guess is Sabotage Showdown.
Matt: Shifting Priorities, I think most people who play well on Shifting and Never Tell are going to go with Never Tell to try to punish their opponents.
Kyle: Lists that like it, can’t risk playing it into Iden/Empire. Shifting Priorities.
Tom: Wish I had a reason but Never Tell Me the Odds.
Pairing vs Pairing – What’s in the Finals, Including Mission? (Worth up to 5 points, 1 point for each Primary and Mission)
Samuel: I am going to go crazy here and not pick Iden/Moff. I bet it will be at least one of the final lists, but for some reason or another, one of two gets left behind. Let’s go with something strong but slightly more off beat for the empire list. And if a miracle happens and a republic list wins worlds, I want to able to say I called it. So, let’s say…
Moff/Thrawn vs Ki-Adi-Mundi/Darth Vader, Jedi Hunter on Sabotage Showdown
Cody: This is where being boring likely pays off. At this point in the game, we are dealing with 2 incredibly skilled players likely playing some form of competitive lists. While I could see a great deal of options here, I think this is the safest pick.
Iden/Moff vs Kanan/Princess Leia Charming played on Never Tell Me the Odds
Matt: I found a copy of the AMG script lying around. Iden and Vader Emperor’s Servant are going to square off against Princess Leia and Kanan and this will be on Never Tell
Kyle: I wonder if we see any surprising answers here…
Iden/Moff vs Mando/Charming Leia on NTMTO
Tom: It seems everyone is clinging to the meta. I appreciate that, and I don’t mind being wrong, but if I don’t do something else … I am not going to get ahead. Let’s keep with my Ewok prediction.
Iden/Moff vs Leia Organa, Freedom Fighter/Logray playing on Never Tell Me the Odds
Bonus Question! Give a hot take not covered by the above questions, if proven correct at Adepticon win 3 points!
Samuel: I going to be bold here and say, none of the primaries in the finals of last years Adepticon make day 2. That’s General Grievous, Asajj Ventress, Count Dooku, and Mother Talzin. Grievous is the most likely of the four to mess me up, there are multiple good lists built around him, but I think the meta shifted completely since last year.
Cody: Not only will Iden not be the most taken primary, I don’t even think she will be the most taken primary to reach day 2! This is obviously a very hot take as Iden is outstanding and should certainly be prepared for but I honestly think players are actively searching for alternatives to aggro Empire or even just counters to keep them in check.
Matt: A Seperatist primary (Dooku, Grevious, Asajj) will not be put on the table Saturday or Sunday for Worlds.
Kyle: I’ll go a long shot on a new release that may put a dent in the established meta.
Ki Adi Mundi appears in a top 4 premiere list
Tom: Full destruction deck from the Empire takes the win overall. You will have Darth Vader, Jedi Hunter, and The Grand Inquisitor just mowing down the meta. Every roll is spot in, they cross that middle threshold and just annihilate. Who cares about objectives, it’s now a death match.
Want to Join in the Fun?
Make your own predictions by filling out the form below! Highest score wins the title of Community Grandmaster and gets a shoutout in our post-Adepticon coverage!
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