This week’s Hammer of Math examines the distribution of tasks within the Pariah Nexus Mission Deck.
There was a lot to like about Leviathan, including the dynamic experience of Tactical Missions and the sheer number of combinations stemming from selecting a Deployment, Primary Mission, and Mission Rule. There were other things (notably Secret Missions) which were a bit of a miss, but overall the concept was good. Pariah Nexus leverages a lot of what was good from Leviathan and tweaks the bad, and I have definitely had fun playing it.
As with Leviathan, Pariah Nexus utilizes a Secondary Mission system that gives players the option to either pre-select their missions from a list of Fixed Secondaries or randomly draw them via the Tactical Missions option. Ultimately it’s up to the player to decide what option will have the greatest probability of getting to the maximum cap of 40 VP offered by Secondaries. 40 VP over 5 turns is an average of 8 VP has to be earned per turn, or 4 VP per card. With Tactical Missions the card is achieved at the end of any player turn in which the missions scores VP.
Fixed Missions
Assassination is a kill-focused mission exclusively focused on CHARACTER models. Either you gain 4 VP per enemy CHARACTER killed with Fixed Missions, or 5 VP at the end of either player’s turn if a CHARACTER is killed (or they’re all dead) with Tactical Missions. As a Fixed Mission you would need to face at least 5 CHARACTER models (and ideally many more) to have a chance to get 20 VP out of this card.
Behind Enemy Lines is a position-focused mission. As a Fixed Mission the player earns 3 VP at the end of the player’s turn if a qualifying unit is wholly within the enemy deployment zone. Since there are only 5 turns per game that makes it impossible to earn more than 15 VP from this card. As a Tactical Mission the player earns 4 VP if two or more qualifying units are wholly within the enemy deployment zone.
Bring It Down is a kill-focused mission that targets MONSTER or VEHICLE units. Regardless of whether the card is used in Fixed or Tactical Missions, it earns 2 VP for killing a MONSTER or VEHICLE target, an additional 2 VP if the Wounds characteristic of the target is equal to or greater than 15, and 2 more VP (for a total of 6) if the Wounds characteristic of the target is equal to or greater than 20. This means that the card is detrimental if the enemy player doesn’t have a target with 15 or more wounds, and as a Fixed Mission needs at least 5 targets with 15+ wounds or 4 targets with 20+ wounds to hit the 20 VP threshold.
Cleanse is focused on actions and objective markers. Units perform a Cleanse action while in range of an objective marker that is not in the friendly deployment zone. If the unit is still there at the end of the player turn then the player gains 2 VP for Cleansing one marker and 4 VP for 2 or more. The cap means that the player has to maintain a presence within 2 objective markers for all 5 turns to max this Secondary out.
Cull the Horde is a kill-focused mission that targets INFANTRY units. The target unit must either have a Starting Strength of 20+ or have a total Wounds characteristic of 25+ to be valid; when the valid target is destroyed the player earns 5 VP. Naturally this means the enemy player needs at least 4 valid units to max this out.
Engage on All Fronts is a position-based mission where VP is gained from having units wholly within table quarters and more than 6″ away from the center of the battlefield. You gain 2 VP from being in 3 quarters and 4 VP from being in all four.
Establish Locus is an action and position-based mission. The action can be performed in the center of the battlefield for 2 VP, or in the enemy deployment zone for 4 VP. Performing the action 5 times in a row in the enemy deployment zone to max out this Secondary seems like a challenge.
Recover Assets is a position and action based mission. Units needs to be wholly within player’s deployment zone, No Man’s Land, and the enemy deployment zone and one unit within each location can perform the action. If two units perform the action the player gains 3 VP, and if three units perform the action the gain is 6 VP.
Storm Hostile Objective is objective marker based. You gain 4 VP from either controlling an objective marker that your opponent controlled, or controlling a new objective marker while your opponent doesn’t control anything. The number of variables involved in achieving this Secondary makes it challenging to determine how reliable it is.
Fixed Mission Distribution
Of the 9 Fixed Missions, 66% rely on positioning of some form (including being around objective markers) and the remainder revolve around kills. 4 out of the 6 position-based missions required perfect success to maintain the 4 VP per turn pace and max out the 20 available VP over 5 turns. Behind Enemy Lines was the only mission which couldn’t achieve 20 VP (it maxed out at 15 VP), and Recover Assets was the only one that had a maximum of 30 possible VP. There’s synergy between Behind Enemy Lines and Recover Assets where that unit in the enemy deployment zone is worth 5 VP on their own.
- Having less than 5 CHARACTER units prevents Assassination from being a viable Fixed Mission.
- Bring It Down becomes challenging if you avoid having MONSTER or VEHICLE units with 15 or more wounds. Maleceptors and Leman Russes get close without going over.
- Having Starting Strengths below 20 or units with less than 25 wounds makes Cull the Horde less appealing. 10 Intercessors with a Captain? Bad. 10 Hellblasters with a Lieutenant? Good. Note that this statement is purely based on math and is not reflective of my understanding of the meta.
Tactical Missions
Area Denial is a position-based mission. You gain 2 VP for having one or more qualifying units within 3″ of the center and no enemy units within 3″. If no enemy units are within 6″ of the center then the mission is worth 5 VP instead.
Containment is action and position-based. Units perform an action if they’re wholly within 9″ of a battlefield edge and not in the friendly deployment zone. Performing the action is worth 3 VP per battlefield edge, with a maximum of 6 VP possible.
Defend Stronghold is based on objective markers. You gain 3 VP if you control an objective marker in your deployment zone. That’s it.
Extend Battle Lines is based on controlling objective markers. If you control a marker in your deployment zone and one in No Man’s Land you gain 5 VP, or 2 VP if you only have one unit on the battlefield and that unit controls a marker in No Man’s Land.
Marked for Death is a kill-based mission where the enemy selects 3 units that are on the battlefield. If one of the units is destroyed the card is worth 5 VP.
No Prisoners is a kill-based mission where the player gains 2 VP for every unit that is destroyed with a cap of 5 VP.
Overwhelming Force is based on killing around objective markers. You gain 3 VP each time you destroy an enemy unit that is within range of an objective marker with a cap of 5 VP.
Sabotage is action and position based, and requires a terrain feature. A unit that is within the terrain feature can perform an action and if they survive until the end of the opponent’s next turn (or the end of the battle) then they either gain 3 VP if the terrain feature is in No Man’s Land or 6 VP if the feature is in the enemy deployment zone.
Secure No Man’s Land is based on objective markers. You gian 2 VP for controlling one marker in No Man’s Land, and 5 VP for controlling two.
Tactical Mission Distribution
Assuming you cycle through two Missions every turn, that’s a total of 10 missions selected out of a possible 18 options.
- 66% of the missions are position or objective marker focused while the remaining third are kill focused. Over 10 draws you are practically guaranteed to pull a kill mission; the chances of not getting one is only 0.0017%.
- The missions that don’t require killing are evenly distributed between objective markers and general positioning.
- With a full deck of 18 cards you have a 44% chance of drawing a mission which requires a unit to be outside of your deployment zone, 22% chance of requiring a unit to be in No Man’s Land, 22% for needing a unit in the enemy deployment zone, and an 11% chance of the unit needing to be in the center.
- 42% of the missions include an Action component. That means if your army includes a single MONSTER or VEHICLE unit with 14 wounds or less then your opponent has a 44% chance to draw a card that’s only worth 2 VP.
- The chance of not drawing a particular card over the course of 10 draws is 56%.
The distribution of possible points within Tactical Missions is pretty interesting as well.
- Only one mission (Defend Stronghold) provides less than 4 VP on success.
- 5 missions (all of the Fixed Missions which are based on positioning units with the exception of Recover Assets) are capped at 4 VP.
- 7 missions are capped at 5 VP.
- 3 missions (Recover Assets, Containment, and Sabotage) have the potential to provide 6 VP.
On average the maximum VP a mission is worth (outside of cards with no ceiling like Bring It Down or Cull the Horde) is 4.75, which puts it above the return of the majority of the Fixed Mission cards.
Thanks for reading! If you have any questions or comments feel free to drop us a note in the Comments below or email us at contact@goonhammer.com. That’s the best way to suggest topics for future articles. Want articles like this linked in your inbox every Monday morning? Sign up for our newsletter. And don’t forget that you can support us on Patreon for backer rewards like early video content, Administratum access, an ad-free experience on our website and more.
