This week’s Hammer of Math takes a close look at the choices behind the Savage Echoes and Red Rampage Stratagems in the Liberator Assault Group in the new Codex: Blood Angels.
The Blood Angels are an iconic part of Warhammer 40k. From the amazing 2nd Edition box artwork from John Blanche to their unique units and models (RIP Dreadnought Librarian), the Sons of Sanguinius do a wonderful job of maintaining the Space Marine look while setting themselves apart in a way that doesn’t require an overuse of wolf references. The specialized nature of their army causes their effectiveness to ebb and flow with the shifting meta; many a jump pack marine has suddenly succumbed to the Black Rage in time with a new codex. They seem particularly well suited for 10th Edition with their emphasis on movement.
The “core” detachment for Blood Angels is the Liberator Assault Group, and it features a very strong core ability (+2S and +1A on the charge) along with some really nice Stratagems. Four of these Stratagems are particularly interesting because they present you with two options that must be chosen, or you can use both at the expense of being Battle-shocked. While Aggressive Onslaught and Relentless Assault are focused on movement, Savage Echoes and Red Rampage are focus on melee and have choices that we can explore from a mathematical standpoint.
Savage Echoes
Savage Echoes is a 1 CP Battle Tactic which can be used during the opponent’s Charge phase after a unit has been charged. The affected unit can add +1 to the Strength or Attacks characteristic of their weapons, or do both in exchange for being Battle-shocked. This is interesting because it’s asking the player to compare a driving roll and a gatekeeping roll; Attacks versus a Wound roll. The optimal choice first depends on whether or not the improvement to Strength will improve the Wound roll. If the improvement does result in a better roll, then the second question is whether or not the improvement to the Wound roll will be better than increasing the number of attacks made.
Going from the chart above, we see that going from 1 attack to 2 (a 100% improvement) is equal to going from a 6+ to a 5+. 2 attacks to 3 (50% improvement) is equal to going from a 5+ to a 4+. 3 attacks to 4 (33% improvement) is equal to going from a 4+ to a 3+. And 4 attacks to 5 (25% improvement) is equal to going from a 3+ to a 2+. When making the choice, go with the option that improves the chances the most. If the improvement is equal, go with adding more attacks.
So for example, if you have a weapon with a two attacks and a 3+ wound roll, adding another attack is a bigger benefit than increasing the wound roll. On the other hand, adding an attack to a weapon with five attacks will always be worse than improving the wound roll.
Red Rampage
Red Rampage is a 1 CP Battle Tactic that is used in the Fight phase and gives one unit the option to have their weapons gain [LANCE], [LETHAL HITS], or at the cost of Battle-shocking the unit they can have both. This one is fairly complicated and depends on both the wound roll (assuming the chosen unit charged) as well as the whether or not the Hit roll has the option to be re-rolled. So first up we need to look at the net probability of hitting and wounding.
Next we need to compare that to the probability of hitting and wounding assuming [LETHAL HITS] is involved.
When hitting on a 2+, the only time [LETHAL HITS] is superior is when the wound roll can’t be improved further. When hitting on a 3+, [LETHAL HITS] is equal to or better against wound rolls of 2+, 5+ and 6+. Is this still true when Oath of Moment is involved and Hit rolls can be re-rolled?
When a re-roll is involved, [LETHAL HITS] definitely sees significant improvement and is equal to or better than improving the Wound roll when the original target is 2+, 5+ or 6+; this is true when hitting on a 2+ or a 3+.
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